George W. Bush wants to enact a fiscal program that appears to be a
take-off on the popular television show, “Who Wants to be a
Millionaire?” Instead, his real-life program should be titled, “Who
Wants to Help a Millionaire?” Bush insists that it should be the
federal government—and that’s his final answer. The proposal he
recently submitted to Congress puts him in the position of being what
Jesse Jackson calls a reverse Robin Hood. Bush robs from the poor to
give to the rich. And he does it with a straight face. According
to an analysis of the proposal issued by the Brookings-Urban Institute
Tax Policy Center, almost half of all tax filers—49 percent—would
receive tax cuts of less than $100. The average tax reduction for the
bottom 80 percent of tax filers would be $239 under the Bush plan. By
contrast, the top 1 percent of filers would receive an average of
$24,400. Those with incomes of more than $1 million would get $88,900.
Nearly 60 percent of the reductions would go to the top 10 percent of
earners. Of course, Bush supporters contend that it’s only fair
that the people receiving the most income should enjoy the most tax
savings. But that’s not the issue. The issue is: Why should the federal
government, already faced with a reeling economy, provide more tax
relief to people able to take care of themselves financially on top of
the measures already enacted to primarily benefit them? While
steadily marching down this misguided path, the White House is playing
a numbers game. It boasts that 92 million taxpayers would receive an
average tax cut of $1,083 in 2003. Yes, if you average the reduction of
taxes to be paid by the wealthy with the rest of population, that
figure would be accurate. But when you examine how Mr. or Ms. Citizen
will fare, nearly 80 percent of tax filers would earn less than the
figure cited by the White House, according to the Tax Policy Center
data. If the Bush program passes without change, it would cost
the U.S. Treasury $364 billion in lost taxes on dividends alone. The
Bush plan would accelerate tax rates cuts scheduled for 2004 and have
other changes, such as the marriage penalty tax, kick in sooner. Over
the next decade, the changes would result in a loss of more than $900
billion. Robert Greenstein, executive director of the Center on
Budget and Policy Priorities, a research group in Washington, D.C.,
says that middle-class taxpayers will experience temporary tax relief.
“By contrast, the most affluent Americans would receive a lavish new
tax cut that is permanent, the elimination of taxes on corporate
dividends.” Putting aside the question of whether the Bush plan
would be the best way to jumpstart an economy that has seen more than
1.2 million jobs lost since this administration has been in office, the
plan would be disastrous for state governments. Already facing
their worst fiscal crisis in 50 years, states would lose $4 billion to
$5 billion a year, according to the Center on Budget and Policy
Priorities. The dividend tax exclusion would be keenly felt in the 37
states and the District of Columbia, each of which link their tax
systems to the federal system. States have already suffered
financially because of last year’s change in the estate tax. New
retirement breaks and education savings and bonus provisions are likely
to further reduce state revenues. That will result in further cuts in
jobs and services at the state level, experts predict. Greenstein
explains, “There is no ‘free lunch,’ and these tax cuts ultimately
would have to be paid for, either through higher interest rates and
slower economic growth caused by swollen deficits or through budget
cuts, most likely programs for the middle class and the poor.” And
that’s exactly the point. Even if we don’t go to war with Iraq, the
plan outlined by Bush will continue to erode the ability of the federal
government to finance social programs. According to Greenstein’s group,
the average rate of spending in constant dollars under Bush is 4.7
percent. Under Clinton, it averaged 1.5 percent and under the elder
Bush 1.9 percent. Even with the dramatic jump in spending, Bush
is paving the way for long-term deficits—something Republicans have
consistently railed against—by proposing more than $2 trillion dollars
in tax breaks. When all of the money is gone, the so-called
compassionate conservative can say he wants to show compassion, but we
just don’t have the money. That’s a clever plan—if he is allowed to get
away with it.
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