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The Politics of Immigration
By George E. Curry
Philadelphia Inquirer
May 7, 2010

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After intense sparring over the stimulus plan and a protracted debate over health-care reform, the U.S. Senate was poised to see the introduction of a bipartisan energy and climate bill by Democrat John Kerry of Massachusetts, Republican Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, and Democrat-turned-independent Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut.

But what was almost a rare kumbaya moment was crushed by a familiar Washington interloper: politics.

Facing a tough reelection bid in Nevada, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid announced that instead of allowing the climate bill to follow health care on the Democratic agenda as promised, he is shifting his focus to immigration.

The issue has taken on added significance in the wake of Arizona lawmakers' passage of tough new legislation requiring law enforcement officials to question people about their immigration status if officials suspect they are in the country illegally.

Although immigration reform was championed three years ago by Sens. Edward M. Kennedy and John McCain, there are doubts about whether it can pass before this year's midterm elections.

Latinos are the fastest-growing group in the country, and both parties have jockeyed for their support, especially in certain pivotal states. Latinos make up about 12 percent of the electorate in Florida, California, and Texas.

George W. Bush's 2000 presidential bid targeted Latinos successfully, winning almost half the Hispanic vote, or about double their 1996 support for Bob Dole. And John McCain's mishandling of immigration, a key issue for Latinos, was a major factor in his defeat, according to a new study by the pro-immigration group America's Voice, "The Power of the Latino Vote in America."

"While McCain had previously been a leader on comprehensive immigration reform, he tracked right during the 2008 Republican primary, and famously distanced himself from his own immigration reform bill," the report says. "His party had also gone through a very public and very brutal civil war over the issue during the 2002 and 2007 congressional debates, and many Latino voters were turned off by the GOP's demonization of Latino families."

The report adds, "Latinos nationwide voted for the Democratic presidential nominee over the Republican by a margin of 59 percent to 40 percent in 2004 (Kerry-Bush) and 67 percent to 31 percent in 2008 (Obama-McCain). The swing vote was even more pronounced among foreign-born Latino voters, with 52 percent choosing Kerry in 2004 and 48 percent choosing Bush - nearly breaking even - while in 2008, 75 percent chose Barack Obama and 25 percent supported John McCain."

Reid clearly understands the power of the Latino vote, now 12.4 percent of the Nevada electorate. With strong backing from Latinos, Obama was able to capture Nevada, which went for Bush in 2000 and 2004.

Reid said he remains "committed to comprehensive immigration reform" and hopes that "we are able to enact it soon." One of his expected Republican opponents, real estate agent Danny Tarkanian, has said the best way to stem the tide of illegal immigration is to "enforce our immigration laws, even if that means a physical barrier or electronic fence at our borders."

The America's Voice report says that given Nevada's substantial Latino population, "these voters ... could be a decisive factor in whether the Senate majority leader returns for his fifth term."

According to a Gallup poll taken after Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer signed the tough immigration bill, more Americans favor the Arizona law (51 percent) than oppose it (39 percent). Sixty-two percent of Republicans support the new law, compared with 45 percent of Democrats.

Democrats realize support for reform that includes a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants is likely to help them politically. In a December 2009 poll by Bendixen & Amandi, 72 percent of Latinos said they would not consider voting for a candidate who favors forcing most undocumented residents to leave the country.

The debate over immigration must address the problem of border security as well as the 12 million undocumented people already here, while doing right by legal immigrants who played by the rules. It will be a tough balancing act for both parties.

Still, immigration reform is in order, and it should be undertaken regardless of whether it will primarily benefit Democrats or Republicans. It should benefit the entire nation.

 



 

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